As we count down the days until the beginning of the 2005 MLB season, I'm struck by one overriding emotion: relief. I've always been a big baseball fan and I'm always excited for opening day, but the dawn of this season holds additional importance.
This is because I've spent the last five months living in sports fan hell. The universe has chosen this point in time to even itself out, punishing me for all of the joy I've felt over the years being a fan of Bay Area sports. It's been a good run - 49ers dynasties, consistently competitive Giants and A's teams, the endearing comedy of the Warriors.
But since the end of the 2004 baseball season, the well has officially run dry. This year, I stopped watching the Niners after week 3, gave up on the Warriors after game 11, and I just wasn't able to muster the enthusiasm to get behind the Clash in their playoff run. The one pleasant note to this historically futile stretch is the fact that I haven't had to hear about the Sharks at all, save for the occasional "what are they doing without hockey" update about some player who's been forced to work construction to feed his family.
So it is with open arms that I welcome the artificially enhanced behemoths of baseball. I've spent a ridiculous amount of time mentally preparing for the season, devouring every piece of written word on just about every player from A-ball up and holding an endless number of debates with friends about trades, free agent signings, and Jose Canseco's testicles.
It is because of this tireless, and more than slightly pathetic, devotion that I feel comfortable offering up a few predictions for the 2005 MLB season:
Bringing Home the Bacon: Yankees. This is hard to write, both because I consider them to be emblematic of all that is wrong with baseball and because my heart truly thinks the Giants have a shot. But the Yanks had a very solid offseason, greatly improving their pitching staff and picking up some nice complementary players (including Tino Martinez and Tony Womack). It may not be smooth sailing - I think there's a better than average chance that Kevin Brown and the Big Unit will murder one another, and there's a decent chance Trot Nixon and Kevin Millar will gang rape A-Rod in the Fenway visitors' locker room (those gay porn moustaches are fooling no one, guys). But the Yankees were the second best team in baseball last year and they've improved, while the Red Sox have declined a bit on paper. That makes the Yanks the favorites.
Bringing up the Rear: KC Royals. The Devil Rays are a pretty safe pick in any year, but they've actually got a fair amount of good young talent and I think they're due for a bit of a turnaround. The Royals, on the other hand, have the look of one of the worst teams since Prohibition. Their lineup is a collection of "Who the hell is that guy?" guys, and their rotation isn't much better. They're very young, but the only real prospects are Jeremy Affeldt and, to a lesser degree, Zack Greinke. Mike Sweeney is treated like a God there, but what has the guy ever done except spend months at a time in traction? They get additional minus points for starting Terrence Long, a charter member of the "My Least Favorite Players of All Time Club" along with Lee Stevens, Wayne Franklin and Candy Maldonado. The Royals are simply terrible this year and are already the prohibitive favorites to take this spot for the next three years.
Chan Ho Park Memorial Award for Big Money Free Agent Signing Most Likely to Result in a GM's Suicide: Pedro Martinez. We live in slightly more fiscally responsible times, so nothing rivals the galactic boner that John Hart pulled in giving Chan Ho a 5 year, $65 million contract in 2001. But Omar Minaya's decision to give Pedro a 4 year, $53 million deal is very shady in its own right. He's well past his prime, in rapid decline (albeit from pretty incredible heights), has serious health concerns and carries an enormous amount of baggage that will be repeatedly kicked around by the ruthless NYC media. There were some some other pretty horrible pitcher signings this offseason - Kristina Benson for 3 years and $22.5 million, Eric "Mediocre" Milton for 3 years and $25.5 million - but paying $13.25 million a year to a guy who spends most of his time with a Latin midget and whose shoulder is hanging by little more than a thread is begging for disaster. All in all, the 2005 Mets have definite Hindenburg potential.
Good Team Most Likely to be Shitty: Dodgers. I say this not as a Giants fan/Dodger hater but as someone who thinks "prodigy" Paul DePodesta may be the second coming of Steve Philips, a guy giving the impression he's the least convincing double agent since Leslie Nielsen in "Naked Gun 33 1/3." The guy has made a string of bad-to-awful trades (among them the Paul LoDuca/Guillermo Mota/Juan Encarnacion for Brad Penny/Hee Seop Choi debacle) and questionable free agent signings (essentially choosing brittle, streaky, battery-friendly J.D. Drew over a budding potential franchise player in Adrian Beltre, not to mention throwing ridiculous money at Derek "King of the Headcases" Lowe). I look at their big money roster and see a lot of combustible/obnoxious personalities - Odalis Perez, Milton Bradley, Jeff Kent, Lowe, Jeff Weaver - and little dependable talent, especially considering the size of the team's payroll. I think Jim Tracy is a solid manager, but he's probably a bad month away from having the clubhouse equivalent of Folsom Prison in "American Me." Hide the bags of rice, Jim.
Shitty Team Most Likely to be Halfway Decent: Milwaukee Brewers. Make no mistake - Milwaukee is a loser organization, ineptly run for years and rarely ever approaching competitiveness. But they've got a little something going, with some legitimate young talent and indications that they've actually started to develop a clue when it comes to personnel moves. Ben Sheets is a stud, on his way to becoming a top 5 ace. Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks, both apparently "can't miss" studs, are a year or so away. And they practically stole Carlos Lee, who's already a stud and still improving, and Lyle Overbay, a solid, Mark Grace-style hitter who will be going .320, 25, 100 for years to come. Doug Davis is a solid lefty arm and if either Victor Santos or Chris Capuano develop into something, well, the Brewers will be cooking with gas. I'm rooting for them just for the fact that I want to see the sausage race get the respect it deserves as one of the most inventive pieces of in-game entertainment to come along in a while.
Milton Bradley Memorial Award for Player Most Likely To Have an On-Field Meltdown: Milton Bradley. I can't imagine anyone else taking this one until Milt rides off on the B&O Railroad to retirement at his Park Place mansion. Unless Albert Belle comes out of retirement or Ty Cobb is resurrected from the dead.
Player Most Likely To Have an Clubhouse/Press Conference Meltdown: Barry Bonds. The guy has been amazingly resilient through what has been a pretty lengthy shitstorm of media scrutiny and fan abuse. But I think he's showing signs of cracking, none more obvious than his graphic Testicle Monologues from last week. The guy is getting old and crotchety before his time, bad timing considering he's drawing an ever-increasing amount of attention as he pulls closer to the home run record. Every man has his breaking point, and Bonds isn't smart (or dumb) enough to be the exception. I just hope T. Long is nearby when the eruption comes.
If the Giants fall out of the race early, I would love to see Sabean go out and trade for Jeff Kent for the last few months of the season just to give fans something to watch. I really think it would make a dynamite reality show. They could sell the rights to Spike TV or another edgy network that doesn't mind extreme violence. Every day Kent could go out and talk to the media about how steroid users are no good, cheating bastards, smirking and saying, "No comment" when asked about Bonds. Then once a series Bonds will corner him in the dugout and put him in a chokehold or shove a forearm in his throat, causing Kent's abnormally large head to turn red and threaten to pop off. If the atmosphere gets too tense, Sabean can bring Benito Santiago back for comic relief. His interviews during the 2003 playoff run were absolute virtuoso performances.
Player Most Likely to be Drafted to My Fantasy Team and Subsequently Cursed for 6 Months:
Pat Burrell. "I know it was you, Pat. You broke my heart." Every year for the last 4 years I've picked the guy, and every year he's KILLED me. The one year he came through, 2002, I dropped him early on (fearing another Burrell-esque slump) and watched other managers ride his hot streak. I'd like to say I'm done with him, but something about the guy keeps me coming back. I don't know if it's our shared status as Bellarmine College Prep alums, the fact that he used to date Heather Mitts, the fact that I had a nice conversation with his stacked ex-girlfriend on NYE 2003, or what, but our fates are hopelessly intertwined. I'm powerlist to resist.
Giants Player Most Likely to Cause Me to Throw the Remote at the TV: Brett Tomko. I came near to naming this one the "Cody Ransom/Ricky Ledee Memorial Award", but the miserable bastards didn't play enough to merit it. And now they're mercifully gone from our lives. Tomko, his hot two months last season notwithstanding, just pisses me off. He'll be cruising along, dealing 95 MPH fastballs and hitting spots, then BAM!! Mental meltdown. He's all over the place, getting shelled, losing his shit. Driving me crazy!!
And although AJ Pierzynski is a prick, something about a guy gutlessly trashing a guy to the media, effectively making him a villain before he really had a chance to prove otherwise, left a sour taste in my mouth. Tomko just strikes me as an uptight pain in the ass, an opinion often born out by his pitching performances. I'm stocking up on universal remotes as we speak.